What We’ve Learned about Test-Optional and Test-Required Admissions

Over the last year or so, we’ve watched test scores return to center stage at many of America’s top colleges. Seven of the top 10 colleges and Universities in the country (per the US News and World Report rankings) have returned to test-required admissions. Admissions offices shared the results of their internal analyses, revealing the powerful predictive value of test scores. Some admissions offices retracted test-optional policies, because test-submitters had such significant advantages that the phrase “optional” became misleading. Other offices reinstated testing noting the “flexibility of a test-optional policy has escalated decision-making stress in an application process that is already stressful.” Many other schools retained their test-optional policies, while adjusting their language to indicate that testing, while optional, could impact an application, revealing that test-optional did not mean test-ignorant.

Test scores matter more than we previously understood

Under the paradigm of test-optional admissions, there’s a great deal of ambiguity regarding the relative weight of test scores in the admissions process. Colleges have a natural incentive to encourage more students to apply, to yield the biggest possible pool of applicants from which to build a class, particularly as yield rates have been in decline. Most colleges with test-optional policies have advised students that they will be judged equally with or without test scores.

What we learned from Yale is that once applications arrive inside the admissions office, the treatment of students with and without test scores was not remotely similar. In fact, students without test scores had a 2% chance of gaining admission, while students with test scores had a 6% chance of admission—triple the odds. The Dean of Undergraduate Admissions, Jeremiah Quinlan, understood that “students who were not submitting their test score were inadvertently hurting their chances of admission to Yale.” He admitted, “I became more and more convinced that we weren’t being honest about the reality of our admissions process to students and parents.” Calling the policy test-optional felt disingenuous, and the admissions office reversed course and reinstated testing requirements. Yale came clean and corrected the misperception that students had an equal shot of getting in with or without tests, but many other admissions offices have yet to make that correction. 

Other colleges reduced the ambiguity and clarified that while optional, testing aided the admissions office in predicting academic success. Internal research from Boston College found test scores to “add measurable value in predicting academic success. For this reason, students who complete the SAT or ACT are encouraged to submit their scores.” Rice University cited the “meaningful insights” into student performance gained from testing and similarly moved to “recommend that students submit the testing they feel will showcase their strengths, beyond simply having a test optional policy.” Grinnell College offered: “If you get the score you hoped for, and especially if it’s above average for Grinnell, submitting the score may help you in the admission process.” Phrases such as “encouraged”, “recommended” and “help” indicate that testing is not a neutral factor in the admissions process, and while optional, remains impactful.

Test scores are powerful predictors of performance, especially at highly selective institutions

We learned from the University of Texas at Austin that test scores are nearly essential to ensure the right students are admitted to the right academic programs. Students without test scores were achieving Freshman grades nearly a full point (0.86) below their matched peers who submitted test scores, and were 55% more likely to be on academic probation (below a 2.0 GPA). Students performing at lower levels require more resources and academic support and pose a greater risk of dropping out. This incredible discrepancy in academic performance drove the Texas flagship to reinstate test requirements.

The Ivy Plus study conducted by Raj Chetty and other researchers from the Opportunity Insights group found that for the Ivies plus Chicago, Stanford, Duke, and MIT, standardized test scores were much better than high school grades at predicting collegiate academic performance. The results of their analysis were striking.

In their internal study of variables predicting performance at Dartmouth, researchers Bruce Sacerdote and colleagues found that high school grades predict a mere 9% of the variance in college grades, while the SAT, by itself, explains 22% of the variance. Combining the two variables explains 25% of the variance in grades at Dartmouth. The SAT is the single best predictor of academic achievement for all demographic groups, which helped fuel Dartmouth’s decision to reinstate testing requirements. In light of this research, eight of the twelve members of the Ivy Plus group have now reinstated testing requirements: MIT, Dartmouth, Yale, Harvard, Brown, Penn, Cornell and Stanford. 

Test Scores, especially the Math subscores, matter more for STEM students

Math scores on the SAT and ACT help colleges with a STEM focus gauge the relative quantitative strength of applicants. MIT was one of the first universities to reinstate test requirements in 2022. Stuart Schmill, MIT’s Dean of Admissions explained the rationale behind this policy shift: “Our research has shown that, in most cases, we cannot reliably predict students will do well at MIT unless we consider standardized test results alongside grades, coursework, and other factors.” Other STEM giants, CalTech, GA Tech, Johns Hopkins and others have since returned to test-requirements. Johns Hopkins noted that its admissions office was “seeking to gain confidence in the math preparation of applicants who indicate an interest in math-intensive courses of study like engineering and natural sciences.” Carnegie Mellon encourages test score submission and its “School of Computer Science applicants are strongly encouraged to submit either an SAT or ACT including the math subscore, to bolster their application's strength and to aid in determining their ability to succeed academically at Carnegie Mellon.” Similarly, Cooper Union just reinstated test-requirements for its engineering school applicants.

Many state flagships act like “Public Ivies” when they allocate spots to out-of-state students

It’s not surprising that UT Austin was the first public school to reinstate testing following announcements from Dartmouth, Yale and Brown, as the UT acceptance rate for out-of-state students, a mere 8%, approaches the admit rate for this highly select group of colleges. UNC Chapel Hill posted an 8% admit rate for out-of-state students for the class of 2026, and we’ve heard that this rate has fallen to 6% for the class of 2028. There’s a very good chance that additional public Ivies such as UNC Chapel Hill will take a page out of the Ivy playbook by reinstating testing requirements.

Test scores may be powerful predictors of performance, but test-optional admission provides many benefits that are hard to forego

Test-optional admissions policies provide many benefits to colleges:

1. Higher average test scores: By wiping out roughly the bottom quarter of score submissions, average test scores rise considerably, which makes the college seem more impressive.
2. Massive application surges: When test requirements are dropped, more students will apply.  While the numbers may pop, which many admissions offices like, the overall quality of applicants may not change. Yale had a 66% increase in applications between 2020 and 2023, from 35,000 to 57,000. However, the vast majority of students in the surge were “not competitive in [the] applicant pool.” The new applicants primarily consisted of international applicants (increasing 130% in 4 years) and domestic students with relatively weak high school transcripts.
3. The appearance of being more selective and desirable: Acceptance rates at the highly selectives have been driven lower and lower under test-optional admissions policies.
4. A competitive edge over test-requiring institutions: Dropping the testing requirement makes it easier for students to apply to a college, and can give schools a competitive advantage over institutions that require testing.

Given these benefits, some schools will be unwilling to revert to test-required admissions, even if their own institutional data suggests the value of that approach. Duke was part of the Opportunity Insights study, which revealed the unique predictive power of standardized tests, but decided to commit to a test-optional policy. Duke is now driving in 59,850 applicants (up from 36,000 in 2019) for an acceptance rate of 4.8%, and it may be loath to give up those gains in applicants and selectivity.

Competitive dynamics may influence test-requirements

In the discussion regarding reinstating test-requirements, board members of the University System of North Carolina expressed concerns that requiring test scores might drive students away from the UNC system, especially at less selective schools.  

Demographics may influence test-requirements

One colleague framed the discussion in terms of state demographics. States that are growing in population, like Texas, may be less worried about hitting future admissions targets and more likely to reinstate testing requirements. On the other hand, states that are stagnating or losing population may be much less likely to reinstate testing requirements, for fear of losing potential applicants.

More students are submitting scores to test optional colleges

Students are coming to understand the relative advantages afforded by strong testing, and they are adjusting their behavior accordingly. More students are submitting test-scores, and the Common App revealed an 11% annual increase in test score submission for the most recent admissions cycle. This increase in test-score submission is particularly notable among selective test-optional institutions. Elite, test-optional schools like Princeton, University of Chicago, and UNC Chapel Hill, respectively enroll 77%, 76% and 69% of students who submitted test-scores, per the Common Data Set.

More test requirements are coming

Many selective schools across the country have yet to take a post-pandemic position on testing. The University of Miami, Penn and The Ohio State University all returned to testing in the first half of the year, and we anticipate other selective colleges and Universities will follow suit in the coming months.  Given that admissions policies are evolving, students must stay abreast of these developments as they prepare their applications. Students with strong test scores may have a meaningful advantage in the admissions process, even at test-optional institutions.  While the broader admissions landscape will remain predominately test-optional, test-scores will continue to play a meaningful role in admissions for the foreseeable future.